22 May NOAA predicts above-normal storm activity for 2025 Atlantic hurricane season
By Anita Byer, Setnor Byer Insurance & Risk
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting above-normal hurricane activity for the upcoming hurricane season. NOAA’s 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
NOAA is forecasting (with 70 percent confidence):
- 13-19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)
- 6-10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher)
- 3-5 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or higher)
According to NOAA, the above-normal forecast is due to a confluence of factors, including ENSO-neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña). In addition to potentially higher activity from the West African Monsoon, which is a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes, NOAA notes that high-heat content in the ocean and reduced trade winds tend to favor tropical storm formation. The higher-heat content provides more energy to fuel storm development, while weaker winds allow the storms to develop without disruption.
Forecasters at Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project are similarly predicting an above-average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Their initial forecast is for 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes. The probability of a major hurricane (Category 3-4-5) making landfall somewhere along the east coast of the United States (including Florida) is 26 percent. The probability of a Gulf Coast landfall (from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas) is 33 percent.
NOAA reminds us that the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities, so preparations should not be limited to those living on or near the coast. As such, NOAA’s National Weather Service Director urges everyone to “be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens.”
Remember, it only takes one storm to make it an active hurricane season for you. Please contact us to discuss affordable insurance options to protect your personal and business property during the 2025 hurricane season.