The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins June 1st, but the unofficial peak of hurricane season doesn’t begin until August. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, tropical activity spikes from mid-August through mid-October. In other words, the unofficial peak of the 2019 hurricane season is officially underway.
Before hurricane season began, NOAA predicted a 40 percent chance of a near-normal hurricane season and a 30 percent chance of an above-normal season. On August 8, 2019, NOAA increased the likelihood of an above-normal hurricane season from 30 percent to 45 percent. The number of predicted storms increased too. NOAA forecasters are now expecting:
- 10-17 Named Storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)
- 5-9 Hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher)
- 2-4 Major Hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or higher)
NOAA’s initial forecast was for 9-15 named storms, 4-8 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes. On average, the Atlantic hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
Forecasters say conditions have become more favorable for tropical activity now that El Niño has ended and neutral conditions have returned. According to NOAA’s lead hurricane forecaster, “El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity but now that it’s gone, we could see a busier season ahead.”
Hurricane season is long and maintaining preparations is hard, but the peak of tropical activity is not the time to let things slide. NOAA’s updated forecast should provide all the motivation you need to remain alert, prepared and ready to act if your home and business is in the path of a storm. Remember, it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for you. It’s better to be safe than sorry.
Please contact us if you would like more information about protecting your personal and business property during the 2019 Hurricane Season.