10 Apr Colorado State’s initial forecast predicts more hurricanes in 2024 than ever predicted before
By Anita Byer, Setnor Byer Insurance & Risk
The forecast team at Colorado State University is predicting an historically active Atlantic hurricane season in their initial 2024 forecast. In fact, the number of hurricanes forecast for 2024 is the most ever predicted by CSU in their April outlook. In case you were wondering, CSU has been issuing hurricane forecasts for 41 years. Hurricane forecasters at AccuWeather appear to share an equally grim outlook, noting that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season “is forecast to feature well above the historical average number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes and direct U.S. impacts.”
CSU’s initial forecast for the 2024 hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, includes:
- 23 Named Storms (average is 14.4)
- 11 Hurricanes (average is 7.2)
- 5 Major Hurricanes (average is 3.2)
According to CSU, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall in 2024 is:
- 62% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880-2020 is 43%)
- 34% for the U.S. East Coast, including Florida peninsula (140-year average is 21%)
- 42% for the Gulf Coast, from Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (140-year average is 27%)
- 66% for the Caribbean (140-year average is 47%)
CSU’s forecast team cites record warm tropical and eastern subtropical sea surface temperatures as a primary factor for their prediction of 11 hurricanes in 2024 because hurricanes are fueled by warm ocean water. The active forecast is also supported by the expected transition from El Niño conditions to La Niña conditions around the peak of hurricane season. According to the forecast team at CSU, La Niña tends to decrease upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic. Decreasing winds reduces vertical wind shear, which favors Atlantic hurricane formation and intensification.
CSU forecasters acknowledge that their April outlook tends to be less accurate than later forecasts because considerable atmospheric changes can occur between April and the peak of
hurricane season from August–October. However, because of extremely warm water temperatures and developing La Niña conditions, CSU forecasters have higher-than-normal confidence that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be very active.
The CSU forecast team reminds us that it only takes one storm to make it an active hurricane season for you. So regardless of the number of storms predicted this season, it is critical that everyone understand their risk and heed the warnings of state and local officials. Contact our team of experienced and responsive insurance and risk management professionals to find affordable options to protect your home and your business in the event of a hurricane.