05 Nov Global cat losses top $100B for 6th consecutive year despite ‘uncharacteristic’ lack of major events in Q3

Anita Byer

A recent report on global natural catastrophe losses revealed that despite an uncharacteristic lack of major events during the third quarter of 2025, insured losses still managed to top $100 billion globally for the sixth consecutive calendar year and the eighth year since 2017. Gallagher Re’s 2025 Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report (Q3) found that governments and insurers are currently well within their annual catastrophe budgets due to the “abnormally low frequency of high-cost events” to date. Gallagher Re, however, cautions that the trend of greater losses over time is likely to persist as volatility and the likelihood of greater loss potential continue to increase.

Despite losses already topping $100 billion, the data set forth in the report reveals below-average economic and insured losses during the first nine months of 2025. According to Gallagher Re’s preliminary loss data,

• Global economic loss estimates from all natural perils during the first three quarters of 2025 is $214 billion. In addition to being the lowest total since 2015, this loss estimate is substantially less than the 2015-2024 Q1-Q3 average of $338 billion.
• Global insured loss estimates during the first three quarters of 2025 total $105 billion, which is the lowest total since 2019. It is also substantially less than the 2015-2024 Q1-Q3 average of $114 billion.
• The unusual lack of major events from July through September made it one of the least expensive third quarters for insurance companies since 2000.
• Insured losses during the third quarter alone are estimated to be less than $15 billion, which is the lowest total since 2016.
• Economic losses during the third quarter alone are estimated to be less than $50 billion, which is the lowest Q3 loss estimate since 2006.

The report notes that the financial health of property insurers will strengthen further if these unusually low losses persist for the remainder of 2025. Gallagher Re estimates that it would require unexpected catastrophic events resulting in insured losses of at least $115 billion to meaningfully impact the insurance industry, but the year is not over yet.

While the fourth quarter is typically the least expensive quarter for economic and insured losses, it seems nobody to Hurricane Mellissa, which tied long-standing Atlantic Basin records for lowest recorded pressure (892 millibars) and peak sustained winds (185 mph) when it made landfall in late October. According to Verisk, a data analytics firm, insured property losses for Hurricane Melissa are expected to range between $2.2 and $4.2 billion. Fortunately, these loss estimates are well below Gallagher Re’s estimated loss cushion retained by insurers due to the uncharacteristic lack of major events during the third quarter of 2025.

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