By Anita Byer, Setnor Byer Insurance & Risk
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently updated its 2022 Atlantic hurricane season outlook. Despite relatively little storm activity so far, NOAA maintains that atmospheric and oceanic conditions still favor an above-normal 2022 hurricane season. “We’re just getting into the peak months of August through October for hurricane development,” cautions NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D., “and we anticipate that more storms are on the way.” In other words, stay prepared and don’t let your guard down just yet.
NOAA initially forecast a 65 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 25 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season. Since then, NOAA forecasters have slightly decreased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season from 65 percent to 60 percent. The likelihood of near-normal activity increased from 25 percent to 30 percent, while the likelihood of a below-normal season remains unchanged at 10 percent.
NOAA’s updated outlook, which covers the entire six-month hurricane season, is also forecasting:
- 14–20 Named Storms (was 14–21)
- 6–10 Hurricanes (no change)
- 3–5 Major Hurricanes (was 3–6)
According to NOAA, several atmospheric and oceanic conditions still favor an active hurricane season. La Niña conditions, which are predicted to remain in place for the rest of 2022, could allow the ongoing high-activity era conditions to dominate or slightly enhance hurricane activity. Weaker tropical trade winds, an active west African Monsoon and likely above-normal Atlantic sea-surface temperatures also set the stage for an active hurricane season consistent with the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes.
Hurricane season is long and maintaining preparations is hard, but the peak of tropical activity is not the time to let things slide. NOAA’s updated forecast should provide all the motivation you need to remain alert, prepared and ready to act if your home, business or boat is in the path of a storm. Remember, it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for you. It’s better to be safe than sorry.
Please contact us about protecting your personal and business property against tropical storms and hurricanes.