NOAA is forecasting more named storms and hurricanes in 2024 than ever before

04 Jun NOAA is forecasting more named storms and hurricanes in 2024 than ever before

Posted at 14:56h in Homeowners' Insurance, hurricane season, Property Insurance, Uncategorized by
By Anita Byer, Setnor Byer Insurance & Risk

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is expecting above-normal hurricane activity during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasters are predicting an 85 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 10 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 5 percent chance of a below-normal season. According to NOAA Administrator Dr. Rick Spinrad, “[t]his season is looking to be an extraordinary one in a number of ways…Of note, the forecast for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes is the highest NOAA has ever issued for the May outlook.” The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

This year, NOAA is forecasting (with 70 percent confidence) a likely range of:

  • 17 – 25 Named Storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)
  • 8 – 13 Hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher)
  • 4 – 7 Major Hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or higher)

Like the forecast team at Colorado State University, NOAA identifies various factors in support of its above-normal forecast. According to NOAA, above-normal activity is expected due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation.

As one of the strongest El Ninos ever observed nears its end, NOAA scientists predict a quick transition to La Nina conditions, which lessen disruptive wind shear in the tropics. Abundant ocean heat also creates more energy to fuel storm development. An above-normal west African monsoon can produce African easterly waves that seed some of the strongest and longer-lived Atlantic storms. Finally, NOAA identifies light trade winds, which minimize ocean cooling and allow hurricanes to strengthen without the disruption of strong wind shear.

NOAA’s 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook reminds us that individuals, businesses and communities must prepare now for the upcoming season. Remember, it only takes one storm to make it an active hurricane season for you. Please contact us to discuss affordable insurance options to protect your personal and business property during the 2024 hurricane season.

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